In 2023, the economics of industrial and commercial energy storage investment will gradually emerge. Under the current time-of-use electricity price mechanism, many provinces and cities in China can meet the needs of industrial and commercial energy storage for two charges and two discharges per day. The time-of-use electricity price that satisfies two charging and two discharges is generally set at two peak periods every day, and there is a price difference between the two peak periods.
It can be charged during off-peak hours or normal times, and discharged at the two peak periods respectively to achieve two charging and two discharges. Under the trend of increasing peak-to-valley price difference, more and more provinces have strong economical industrial and commercial energy storage. In addition to the time-of-use electricity price policy with widening peak-to-valley price differences, grid connection for industrial and commercial users is also possible.
The large-scale application of commercial energy storage companies in industrial parks and other scenarios, and the use of peak-valley electricity price differences to reduce electricity costs are becoming a huge incremental market for energy storage in China in 2023. From a policy and market perspective, 2023 will present an important opportunity for the development of China's industrial and commercial energy storage.
1. Three prospects for industrial and commercial energy storage
Through comprehensive analysis, industry insiders believe that industrial and commercial energy storage will have three main development trends:
- 2023 will be a critical year from 0 to 1
- Zero carbon parks are important entry point for industrial and commercial energy storage
- Lifepo4 battery and flow battery are competing in the industrial and commercial fields
① 2023 will be a critical year from zero to one
More and more people in the industry believe that 2023 will be a critical year for China's industrial and commercial energy storage, and it is expected to usher in a 0-1 outbreak.
First, there are obvious changes in industrial and commercial energy storage policies in various parts of China. More and more provinces have widened the peak-to-valley price difference, and more and more provinces have set the noon period as the valley time of electricity prices. In some areas, the time-divided electricity price sets two peak periods every day, realizing two charging and two discharging every day, and the economics of industrial and commercial energy storage are strengthened. Specifically, it can be expressed as:
- Under the time-of-use electricity price, the peak-to-valley price difference is obvious, and the payback period is greatly shortened;
- Under the two-part electricity price, the configuration of industrial and commercial energy storage can reduce the capacity electricity price;
- Some provinces can achieve 2 charging and 2 discharging, and more and more provinces have gradually become more economical for industrial and commercial energy storage;
- Ancillary services, subsidies, and partition wall sales policies are introduced to empower the development of industrial and commercial energy storage;
- Under the background of power rationing, industrial and commercial energy storage has become a means of power backup.
Second, raw materials such as lithium carbonate have dropped significantly, and the overall cost of the energy storage system has decreased accordingly. According to tracking, since the end of 2022, in just over three months, battery-grade lithium carbonate has dropped to around 350,000 RMB/ton. The overall cost of the battery energy storage system is greatly reduced.
Third, new energy storage has gradually become an important new industry in China. In addition to the power grid side in full swing, the creation of zero-carbon parks will serve as a good example for industrial and commercial parks. High-energy-consuming companies have always been important bearers of high electricity prices, and energy storage configuration may become an important way for them to save energy or transform energy
② Zero carbon parks are important entry point for industrial and commercial energy storage
Since 2020, various parts of China have begun to promote the construction of near-zero carbon emission demonstration areas, low-carbon cities, low-carbon parks, and low-carbon communities. A series of green combinations including energy storage systems are standard equipment for zero-carbon parks. It is understood that the zero-carbon park emphasizes the low-carbon, digital, and intelligent transformation and development of the park, and pays more attention to the comprehensive energy planning technology to support the construction of the zero-carbon park.
Taking Shenzhen International Low Carbon City as an example, it is equipped with 1.1MW photovoltaics, 2MWh energy storage and a comprehensive smart park management system. It will produce 1.27 million kilowatt-hours of green electricity every year, reduce carbon emissions by 606 tons, and basically achieve self-consumption of electricity in the park. Such parks are in the ascendant across China. At the end of last year, China issued relevant policies to encourage high-tech zones to plan and build low-carbon industrial parks, and to support the parks in promoting green and low-carbon industrial transformation.
Among them, Wuxi plans to introduce more than 1,000 technology companies in the zero-carbon field by the end of 2025; Shenzhen Futian is integrating 18 zero-carbon projects with strong demonstration, wide range of driving and high correlation. According to analysis, the zero-carbon park may become the first quantitative market for industrial and commercial energy storage.
③ Lifepo4 battery and flow battery are competing in the industrial and commercial fields
At present, based on the diversity of industrial and commercial scenarios, industrial and commercial energy storage products adopt modular design to achieve flexible deployment and smooth expansion. At the same time, they support multi-machine parallel connection, and can provide customers with customized energy storage system solutions to meet market differentiation needs.
According to analysis, as the industry advances in depth, lifepo4 batteries and flow battery systems have the opportunity to enter various industrial and commercial scenarios such as industrial and commercial parks, data centers, and optical storage charging stations. It can meet the needs of industrial and commercial users for functions such as load tracking, capacity time shifting, peak shaving and valley filling, power expansion, emergency backup power, and grid connection benefits.
On the one hand, there will be some usage scenarios that require a relatively simple structure for industrial and commercial energy storage systems. Including battery system + BMS, inverter PCS, energy management system EMS, transformers, racks, connecting cables, confluence cabinets, lightning protection and grounding systems, monitoring and alarm systems, etc. The system is modularized and intelligently designed, and the system voltage and capacity can be flexibly configured.
On the other hand, high-end demands such as long-term and high security may appear in the industrial and commercial fields. Experts pointed out that in the future, China's new energy storage will be gradually extended from 2 to 4 hours in the "14th Five-Year Plan" to 6 to 8 hours. Then long-term, high-security and other industrial and commercial use scenarios will also become a trend. Energy storage methods such as flow batteries that can meet medium and long-term energy storage may receive further attention.
Industry professionals believe that 2023 is a critical year for industrial and commercial energy storage. In the next three years, we will enter the era of comprehensive energy storage, that is, global energy storage, whole-industry energy storage, and whole home energy storage. Energy storage will be rolled out globally with unprecedented scale, growth rate, and coverage.