In 2022, shipments of lithium batteries for energy storage will rise. GGII research data shows that in 2022, the shipment of energy storage lithium batteries will continue the strong growth momentum of the previous year, and the annual shipment will reach 130GWh, a year-on-year increase of 170.8%. From the perspective of subdivided tracks, the shipments of electric energy storage, home energy storage, and portable power station batteries have climbed.
Among them, the shipment of home energy storage grew the fastest, with a growth rate of over 3.5 times, and the growth rate of electric energy storage and portable energy storage both exceeded 2 times. The shipment of communication energy storage batteries has slowed down, and energy storage will experience negative growth in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 25%. There are three main factors driving the rapid growth of the market in 2022:
- The European energy crisis caused by the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine;
- Reform of China’s electricity market;
- Power grid security crisis in some parts of the United States and the latest policy subsidy plan.
1. Electric energy storage has a broad market
Compared with last year, in 2022, electric energy storage ushered in the spring of the industry. From the perspective of the electric energy storage market, the dual driving factors of the global market are obvious.
Chinese market: China's shared energy storage construction + wind power distribution and storage demand continues to explode, Chinese investors such as CGNPC and Huaneng Group continue to increase the purchase scale of energy storage batteries and systems, and purchase orders for GWh-level lithium battery energy storage come and go. Overseas markets: the US IRA Act extends the ITC tax rebate subsidy, Japan's photovoltaic FIT is transformed into a FIP policy encouragement, and the enthusiasm for investment in energy storage projects has increased under the European energy crisis.
Judging from the dynamics of major mainstream energy storage lithium battery companies, CATL, BYD, HITHIUM, EVE, etc. will accelerate their overseas market expansion in 2022, and their lithium battery export business has entered a period of rapid growth. From the point of view of the electric energy storage battery itself, the battery capacity and the number of cycles are obviously competing. 280Ah batteries have gradually become the mainstream of power storage, and will quickly enter the era of 280Ah batteries, and the capacity will develop to more than 300Ah. Statistics show that the shipment of electric energy storage batteries in 2022 will be 92GWh, a year-on-year increase of 216.2%.
2. Home energy storage has the fastest growth rate
Home energy storage is one of the hottest tracks in the energy storage industry in 2022. Judging from the driving force of this track, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has stimulated the outbreak of photovoltaic + home storage installations in Europe. From January to May 2022, more than 100,000 household energy storage products have been installed in Germany alone. The installed household energy storage in Italy, Spain and Eastern Europe is in short supply throughout the year, and household storage orders are generally scheduled until April 2023.
Superimposing the global material and energy inflation crisis strengthens the economics of household energy storage projects, and the outbreak of household energy storage accelerates. From the perspective of the competitive landscape of home energy storage batteries, CATL, BTD, and Great Power will achieve rapid growth in 2022, of which Great Power will achieve a 6-fold increase in H1 in 2022. At the same time, HITHIUM, FEB, REPT, ZTT, etc. are accelerating their competition in the household energy storage market, showing a high growth trend.
From the perspective of household energy storage batteries, 100Ah and 50Ah square aluminum shell batteries are the main ones. However, large cylindrical batteries are pouring into the household energy storage track, mainly 40 and 46 series, which will become one of the important battery choices for the household energy storage battery track. According to statistics, the shipment of household energy storage batteries in 2022 will be 25GWh, a year-on-year increase of 354.5%.
3. Communication energy storage has negative growth
Compared with other fields, the growth rate of communication energy storage will slow down significantly in 2022. Specifically, in H1 2022, China's non-communication operators will announce the centralized procurement of communication backup power projects, which is far lower than the level of the same period in 2021. Overall, due to the decline in the global economic climate, the slowdown in ICT investment, and the postponement of centralized procurement bidding by Chinese communication operators, the shipment scale of communication energy storage will experience negative growth in 2022.
From the perspective of the battery itself, the cycle of the battery cell used for communication backup is about 2000 times, and the rate is generally 0.5C. In terms of cost and stability, lithium iron phosphate is the mainstream choice for communication energy storage in the short to medium term. However, with the further development of sodium-ion batteries, in the future, sodium-ion batteries and retired batteries that break through the consistency problem will further expand their market share. According to GGII statistics, the shipment of communication energy storage batteries in 2022 will be 9GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 25%.
4. Portable power station accelerates into the blue ocean
Judging from the portable energy storage track, 2022 will continue to be in a high-growth trend. For a long time, the portable energy storage track has been regarded as a blue ocean track by the industry. GGII also analyzed that the three major driving forces for portable energy storage are obvious:
● The charging capacity of the mainstream system will increase from below 300Wh to the level of 800-1000Wh in 2022, and the trend of high power will be obvious;
● Export demand continues to be fulfilled. Stimulated by the camping economy of the United States and Australia, the natural gas shortage crisis in Europe, and the demand for disaster relief and backup power in Japan and South Korea, portable power station will become one of the hottest categories of cross border e-commerce in 2022. Shipments will continue the high growth trend in 2021;
● Since 2022, a large number of Chinese companies have poured into the portable energy storage field, and consumer electronics giants such as Xiaomi, Bull, and Transsion have entered the market one after another, stimulating a large amount of capital injection into the industry.
From the point of view of the portable energy storage battery itself, there is an obvious trend of upgrading to large capacity and long cycle. Among them, the capacity of cylindrical cells is increased to more than 3Ah/cycle life is increased to more than 800 times. On the whole, cylindrical 18650 rechargeable battery is still the main portable energy storage batteries, and cylindrical 21700 and larger cylinders have been applied in small batches in some occasions with more stringent charging requirements. According to GGII statistics, the shipment of portable energy storage batteries in 2022 will be 4GWh, a year-on-year increase of 207.7%.