Specific analysis of wind energy resource industry development data

The global wind energy resources are extremely rich, and the total amount of technically available resources is estimated to be about 53×10GWh/year. As a renewable clean energy, it is highly valued by countries all over the world. According to a research report released by Deutsche Bank, global wind power development is entering a stage of rapid expansion. By 2015, the total output value of the industry will increase to five times the current level. The actual situation in the past 10 years shows that wind energy is the fastest growing energy source in the world. According to statistics from the Global Wind Energy Association (GWEC), wind power development covers more than 70 countries. In 2006, the installed capacity was 15.197 million kW. The new installed capacity increased the global installed capacity of wind power from 59.264 million kW in 2005 to 74.223 million kW, which is 25% in the past five years. The left and right speeds increase. The top five countries with installed wind power capacity in the world are: Germany, Spain, the United States, India and Denmark. The installed wind power capacity of these countries exceeds 3 million KW, of which Germany and Spain exceed 10 million KW. Proportion of installed wind power in the world: 31% in Germany; 17% in Spain; 16% in the United States; 7% in India; 5% in Denmark; 3% in Italy; 2% in the United Kingdom; 2% in China; 2% in the Netherlands; 2% in Japan; other 13 %.

From the current technological maturity and economic feasibility, wind energy is the most competitive in the development of the new energy industry. In the medium term, the prospects of the global wind energy industry are quite optimistic. The renewable energy encouragement policies issued by governments of various countries will provide a huge impetus for the rapid development of the industry in the next few years. In the past 20 years, wind power technology has made tremendous progress. In 2005, the world's wind power generation scale was about 59.25GW, an increase of 25% over 2004 and 3.2 times that in 2000, and the speed of development is astonishing.

The technology of wind turbines is developing in the direction of increasing the capacity of a single unit and improving the conversion efficiency. The single-unit capacity of wind turbines has grown from 600kW to 2000~5000kW. For example, Germany has installed batches of single-unit 5000kW wind turbines in the North Sea and the Elbe Estuary, and Denmark has built batches of single-unit capacity 1000-2200kW wind turbines. New technologies and new materials have been widely used in the design and manufacture of new wind turbine blades, which have effectively improved and enhanced the overall design capability and level of wind power generation. In addition, the use of variable blades and doubly-fed motors make the unit more adaptable to changes in wind speed, greatly improving efficiency, and with the development of gearless wind turbines, etc., the safety and efficiency of wind power generation are further improved.

American Wind Energy Market

American Wind Energy Market

Moreover, due to the application of new technologies, the electricity price of wind power is showing a rapid downward trend, and it is getting closer to the cost of coal-fired power generation. Take the United States as an example. The cost of wind turbines has dropped from US$1,333/kW in 1990 to US$790/kW in 2000. The cost of power generation has also been reduced from 8 cents/kWh to 4 cents/kWh, and more It can be reduced to about 3 cents/kWh, reaching a level comparable to conventional power generation equipment. Experts predict that every time the world's wind power generation capacity doubles, the cost will drop by 15%.

European wind energy market

European wind energy market

In 2004, the European Wind Energy Association and Greenpeace signed the report "Wind Power 12-A Blueprint for Wind Power Reaching 12% of the World's Total Electricity by 2020". The "Wind 12%" blueprint shows that wind power has become a solution to the world's energy. The indispensable and important force of the problem. Wind power is the world's largest installed capacity of renewable energy power generation, which exceeded 1.2×10kW at the end of 2008. Wind power generation in the United States and China has grown rapidly. In 2008, the United States added more than 2705×10kW, accounting for 31% of the world's total, and China accounting for 23%. According to the current development trend of wind power, the growth of wind power generation from 2008 to 2012 will be 20%, and the growth of wind power generation will be 15% from 2015 to 2015, and 10% from 2017 to 2020. The results of its calculation are 198GW of wind power installed in 2010, 0.43×10GWh of wind power, 1245GW of wind power installed in 2020, and 3.05×10GWh of wind power, accounting for 11.9% of the world's total electricity consumption at that time of 25.58×106GWh. In 2007, the world’s installed wind power capacity increased by approximately 19.7 million kilowatts, with a cumulative total of approximately 93.8 million kilowatts. Wind power accounted for 0.25% of the world’s total electricity in 2000. The average growth rate from 2001 to 2007 was 25%. Wind power accounted for 1.3% of the world’s total electricity in 2007. , It is expected to account for 3% in 2015 and 12% in 2020. In 2007, the global wind power development covered more than 70 countries. The cumulative installed capacity was up to 10 countries accounting for 86%, the newly installed capacity was up to 10 countries accounting for 91%, and the United States, Spain, and China accounted for 61% of the world's incremental capacity. The wind energy resources on the earth are 10 times that of the earth's hydropower resources, up to 53 trillion kilowatt-hours per year. From the distribution point of view, they are mainly distributed in North America, Asia, Latin America and other places. As of the end of 2008, the global cumulative installed capacity reached 120.8GW, an increase of 28.8%, higher than the average compound annual growth rate of the past ten years.

Asian wind energy market

Asian wind energy market

According to estimates, Asia and the Americas will become the regions with the greatest growth potential in the next few years. China's installed wind power capacity will achieve a rapid growth of 30% per year, and Indian wind energy will also maintain an annual growth rate of 23%. India encourages large enterprises to invest in the development of wind power, and implements preferential policies to encourage wind energy manufacturing bases. India has become the world's fifth largest wind power producer. In Europe, Germany is in a leading position in the development of wind power, and the wind power equipment manufacturing industry has replaced the automobile manufacturing and shipbuilding industries. In the long-term plan for wind power development recently formulated by Germany, it is pointed out that by 2025, wind power will account for 25% of total electricity consumption, and by 2050, it will achieve the goal of 50% of total electricity consumption.

The growth rate of European countries that have always been a leader in the field of wind energy will slow down, and it is expected to maintain an annual growth rate of 15% by 2015. Among the first countries to develop wind energy, such as Germany and Denmark, the construction of onshore wind farms is basically saturated. The next major development direction is offshore wind farms and equipment upgrades. Countries such as the United Kingdom and France still have great potential, and the growth rate will be higher than the average of 15%.

Currently, Germany is still the country with the most advanced wind power technology in the world. The installed capacity of wind power in Germany accounts for 28% of the world's total, while the total production of wind power equipment in Germany accounts for 37% of the global market. With the gradual saturation of the Chinese market, exports have become the main growth point for German wind power equipment companies. The German government will use price subsidies and other means to support the industry to maintain its leading position through technological innovation. As Germany will revise the "Renewable Energy Law" again, the subsidy price for offshore wind farms will be increased from 9.1 Euro cents per kilowatt hour to 14 Euro cents.

In the United States, with the introduction of the new energy policy, the wind energy industry will achieve an extraordinary development of 25% every year. The United States has abundant wind energy reserves, and under a good policy environment, it has huge development potential. According to a research report by Stanford University in 2005 and a research report by Harvard University in 2009, the potential for exploitation of wind energy in the United States is many times the demand for electricity in the United States. At present, the United States has formed the world's largest wind energy industry market, and the cumulative installed wind energy capacity is also the world's largest, but the proportion of wind power in the entire power supply is less than 2%. The U.S. Department of Energy proposed in the U.S. Wind Energy Research Report released in 2008 that by 2030, 20% of the U.S. electricity can be provided by wind energy. According to the 2007 Energy Report of the U.S. Energy Information Administration, from 2005 to 2030, U.S. electricity demand will increase by 39% to 5.8 trillion kilowatt-hours. If 20% of the electricity comes from wind energy, the installed capacity of wind power needs to reach 300 billion watts, of which 50 billion watts come from offshore wind farms. Under the 20% wind power scenario, wind power will replace 50% of natural gas power generation and 18% of coal power generation in the United States by 2030; it can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 825 million tons, accounting for more than 10% of estimated annual emissions; it can save 15 trillion tons of water, equivalent to 17% of the water demand of the US power industry. Since there is no fuel cost in the wind power production process and the maintenance cost is relatively stable, the 20% wind power scenario will also significantly improve the stability and safety of US energy. The physical land occupation required to achieve 20% of wind power is only about 2% to 5% of the land area of ​​the United States. The present value of funds required for the 20% wind power scenario is only 2% higher than the reference scenario (no new wind energy development since 2006), which is about US$2 trillion, slightly more than 1/7 of the US GDP in 2008. The report specifically affirms that this study is only a cost-benefit analysis of technology, production, employment, power grids, and environmental impact in the United States facing a 20% wind power scenario, and is not a prediction of future wind energy development. Judging from the actual data in recent years, the hypothetical scenario where the newly added wind power capacity in the United States exceeds 20%, it is expected that wind power will occupy an important position in the future power industry in the United States.