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On April 22, 2025, the US Department of Commerce suddenly announced the imposition of up to 3403.96% of countervailing duties on solar products from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Combined with the previous anti-dumping duties (6.1% -271.28%), the cost of exporting photovoltaic modules to the US from these four countries will skyrocket several times.
These four countries exported a total of $12.9 billion worth of solar equipment to the United States last year, accounting for 77% of the country's imports of photovoltaic modules. This is equivalent to three out of every four solar panels in the United States coming from these four Southeast Asian countries.
As soon as the news came out, the global photovoltaic market exploded instantly, and the renewable energy industry in the United States was plunged into panic - this trade investigation initiated by domestic manufacturers and promoted by the government in the United States ultimately became a "time bomb" hanging on the top of the industry chain.
US imposes heavy tariffs on some countries
Is the adjustment of US tariffs worth itCambodia has been heavily fined for refusing to cooperate with the investigation, with individual companies facing a tax rate as high as 3521%, almost equivalent to a direct ban on imports; Unnamed companies in Vietnam and Thailand face tariffs of 395.9% and 375.2% respectively; Malaysia has the lowest tax rate, at 34.4%. What's more, these tariffs were imposed on the basis of "universal tariffs" during the Trump administration, and Trump tariffs have already made the global supply chain a mess. Simply put, this time the United States is "calculating old and new grudges together", directly pushing the solar energy products of the four Southeast Asian countries to a dead end.
The impact of tariff adjustments for photovoltaic industry
The impact of tariff adjustments on the United States
In the short term, domestic photovoltaic manufacturers in the United States may be pleased with the lack of competition from low-priced imported products. But in the long run, American renewable energy developers are directly "lying on the gun". These companies have long relied on cheap components from Southeast Asia, but were suddenly subject to high tariffs, causing project costs to skyrocket and profit margins to be squeezed to the point of almost disappearing. What's even more serious is that the US solar energy industry has already been subject to policy instability, and now there is another layer of uncertainty. Who dares to invest?
Economists are more direct in expressing disagreement. Stosten Slock warns that if high tariffs continue, the probability of the United States falling into a recession by 2025 is as high as 90%, and GDP may plummet by 4 percentage points. Small businesses are the first to bear the brunt -80% of employment in the United States is created by small businesses with less than 500 employees, which rely the most on imported parts. If tariffs lead to a large number of retailers going bankrupt, unemployment rates rising, and consumer confidence collapsing, the US economy will fall into a vicious cycle.
Non Southeast Asian production capacity has positive news.
Although the latest US tariff policy has cut off the path for Chinese photovoltaic companies to export through Southeast Asia, it has not completely blocked the channel for module imports. Historical experience shows that the Biden administration implemented a two-year tariff exemption for solar photovoltaic products from four Southeast Asian countries in 2022 to address the battery supply crisis at that time. This precedent suggests that there may still be room for adjustment in future policies.
Market analysis points out that the implementation of the "double reverse" tariffs will significantly enhance the competitive advantages of two types of enterprises: one is enterprises that have already laid out domestic production capacity in the United States, and the other is manufacturers that have established battery production capacity in non Southeast Asian regions. Therefore, after the implementation of the double anti tariff policy, this move will benefit companies that have domestic production capacity in the United States and battery production capacity in non Southeast Asian four countries.
At present, companies with production capacity in the United States include Canadian Solar, JinkoSolar, JA Solar, Longi Green Energy, and Trina Solar. Among them, Longi Green Energy has planned a 5GW module production capacity and has already put it into operation; Canadian Solar has planned a 5GW component production capacity and has already put 4GW into operation; JA Solar has planned a 3GW component production capacity and has already put 2GW into operation; JinkoSolar has planned a 2GW component production capacity and has already put 1GW into operation; and Trina Solar has partnered with 5GW.
At the same time, companies such as Trina Solar and DMEGC have expanded their battery cell production capacity in four non Southeast Asian countries. Among them, Trina Solar's 1GW photovoltaic cell and module production capacity in Indonesia has been successfully put into operation, and it plans to invest in the construction of an integrated production capacity of 50000 tons of silicon materials, 30GW of silicon wafers, and 5GW of battery modules in the United Arab Emirates; DMEGC has established a 3GW battery cell production capacity in Indonesia and achieved full production in September last year. In addition, JA Solar plans to invest in the construction of 6GW battery cells and 3GW module production capacity in Oman, with the first phase of the project scheduled to start production in 2025; Junda Corporation plans to invest in building 5GW battery cell production capacity in Oman, which is expected to be completed and put into operation by 2025.
The great transformation of global supply chain
The adjustment of US tariffs has not only disrupted the Southeast Asian photovoltaic industry, but also disrupted the global photovoltaic industry chain. In the past few years, Eastern photovoltaic companies have built factories in Southeast Asia to avoid US tariffs, forming a model of "Eastern technology+Southeast Asian manufacturing". Now this road is blocked, and companies must either transfer their production capacity to countries with lower tariffs such as Indonesia and Laos, or directly abandon the US market. But either choice means the restructuring of the global supply chain, with inevitable cost increases and delivery delays.
Is the adjustment of US tariffs worth it
To protect the interests of a few photovoltaic manufacturers, sacrificing the development of the entire renewable energy industry, and even potentially dragging down the US economy, is clearly an unprofitable deal. Even more ironic is that the United States is imposing tariffs while also spending money to subsidize domestic clean energy in the Inflation Reduction Act. This contradictory policy of "left-hand suppression and right-hand support" will only make the market more chaotic.
The tariff stick imposed by the United States this time is essentially a political manipulation, rather than a rational decision based on market rules. It not only fails to solve the fundamental problem of insufficient competitiveness in the US photovoltaic industry, but also leaves the US behind in the global competition for new energy. While other countries are accelerating their deployment of renewable energy, the United States is engaging in "isolationism". Is this a shot in the arm of protectionism or a trigger for economic suicide? Time will give the answer.
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