As a new generation of clean energy, lithium batteries can not only avoid environmental pollution, but also facilitate people's life and work. Aiming at the development status of the lithium battery industry, this article analyzes the development and trends of the global and Chinese lithium battery industry, which can promote the development of lithium batteries in a certain sense.
1. Development of the global lithium battery industry
Thanks to the rapid growth of new energy vehicles and energy storage markets, global lithium battery shipments increased from 72.7GWh in 2014 to 562.4GWh in 2021. Especially in 2022, when the global production and sales of new energy vehicles double, the lithium battery industry ushered in explosive growth.
In 2021, global automotive power battery shipments will be 371GWh, accounting for 66% of lithium battery shipments, and energy storage battery shipments will be 66.3GWh, accounting for 12% of lithium battery shipments. In recent years, the global new energy vehicle market has developed rapidly, and the demand for lithium-ion batteries has grown rapidly.
Power lithium-ion batteries have become the largest engine for the growth of the global lithium-ion battery market. China, Japan and South Korea are the main producers of lithium-ion batteries in the world, and the total output of the three countries accounts for more than 90%.
The concentration of the top 10 lithium battery companies in the world, especially the power battery industry, has reached a relatively high level. Mainstream battery manufacturing companies have stable production processes, obvious advantages in terms of battery product consistency and stability, large production capacity, and a large-scale effect.
2. Development of lithium battery industry in China
China introduced lithium-ion battery-related technologies for the first time in 1998. So far, the industry has developed for 25 years, and China has become the world's largest producer and consumer of lithium-ion batteries. China has formed a complete industrial chain, and a number of lithium-ion battery head companies with international competitiveness and leadership have emerged such as CATL, CALB, and EVE.
● Output continues to grow rapidly, and the scale of the industry continues to expand
Relevant data show that China's lithium-ion battery production will reach 750GWh in 2022, of which energy storage lithium battery production will exceed 100GWh. The output of lithium battery materials such as cathode materials, anode materials, separators, and electrolytes has increased by more than 60% year-on-year. The scale of the industry has been further expanded, and the total output value of the industry has exceeded 1.2 trillion RMB.
● Accelerated expansion of industry applications, boosting the acceleration of the double carbon process
In 2022, the rise of lithium batteries will accelerate in the field of new energy vehicles, wind energy storage, communication energy storage, home energy storage and other energy storage fields.
In 2022, China's new energy vehicle power battery installed capacity will be about 295GWh, and the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage lithium batteries will grow by more than 130%, making positive contributions to the efficient development and utilization of new energy and the green and low-carbon transformation of the global economy and society.
● Technological progress accelerates, advanced products emerge in endlessly
Companies are accelerating their deployment around efficient system integration and ultra-large-capacity batteries. Flexible, low-temperature resistant, and water-resistant new battery products have been successfully applied, and the new generation of information technology has further integrated with new energy storage products.
● Enthusiasm for investment in the industry is high, and the whole chain strengthens coordination and cooperation
According to incomplete statistics, in 2022, there will be more than 40 planned projects in the battery cell sector, with a planned total production capacity of over 1.2TWh and a planned investment of 430 billion yuan. Lithium battery companies have strengthened upstream and downstream cooperation in the industrial chain through various forms such as investment and equity participation, signing long-term contracts, and joint research.
3. Supply and demand of lithium battery market
● Demand analysis
From the perspective of specific demand fields, new energy vehicles, energy storage, small power and electric tools, and 3C digital fields are the main downstream application markets for lithium batteries. Among them, the growth of power batteries and energy storage batteries is particularly prominent, and the demand in the 3C digital field is basically saturated, and the growth is slowing down.
New energy vehicles are an important carrier to promote the construction of a low-carbon transportation system. Under the wave of global carbon neutrality, the process of vehicle electrification is accelerating.
By the end of 2022, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China will exceed 25%. In the future, with the promotion of policies and the growth of terminal market demand, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to further increase, and the market has a large room for growth. Energy storage is an inevitable choice for China to achieve carbon neutrality and transform its energy structure.
Supporting new energy power generation installations, grid-side power peak regulation and system frequency regulation, peak-valley arbitrage for industrial and commercial users, 5G and data center backup power. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, energy storage lithium batteries are expected to enter the commercialization acceleration period.
● Supply analysis
According to incomplete statistics of public information, the total production capacity expansion plan of China's top ten lithium battery companies in 2022-2025 exceeds 2200GWh, the overseas production capacity expansion plan is about 700GWh, and the global production capacity plan totals over 3000GWh.
4. Lithium battery industry trends
● Technological innovation will continue to promote industrial development
The future direction of lithium-ion battery technology includes high energy density, high temperature performance, fast charge and discharge, etc., which will continuously promote the improvement of battery efficiency and service life, so as to meet the higher requirements for battery performance in the fields of electric vehicles and energy storage in the future. Lifepo4 battery has the advantages of stable structure, relatively low cost, and long cycle life, and are gradually gaining market recognition.
- Improve system energy density through structural innovation
Power battery companies have improved the energy density of the system through structural innovation, and various new forms such as CTP, blade battery One-Stop Bettery, large cylindrical battery, and cellular battery continue to emerge.
- Solid-state battery technology has become a hot spot for innovation
From the perspective of battery structure, solid-state batteries have relative advantages in terms of safety, energy density, and battery life, and have become an important field for power batteries and auto giants to compete for layout.
● Achieving dual carbon targets to accelerate battery recycling
Recycling battery materials will become a new direction of development. Many companies around the world have begun to research and develop battery recycling and recycling technologies, which will play a positive role in the sustainable development of the lithium-ion battery industry.