Development and trend forecast of solar pv Industry in the world



Advanced lithium ion solar battery technology is driving the explosive growth of the photovoltaic industry. At present, the world's solar pv industry is developing rapidly with an average annual growth rate of 31.2%, ranking first in the growth rate of the global energy power generation market. It is estimated that photovoltaic power generation will account for more than 30% of the world's total power generation by 2030, and photovoltaic power generation will become an important global energy pillar industry by 2050. This article focuses on the solar pv industry, aiming to provide you with accurate solar pv industry information and hot events, and analyze the development trend and trend of the solar pv industry.



Despite the challenges posed by supply chain disruptions and trade wars in 2021, production has grown at all stages of the solar PV industry value chain upstream and downstream. In 2021, the world's new photovoltaic installed capacity will total 182GW, an increase of 26% from the 2020 level. But the scale of module production exceeds that level due to stockpiling, especially in India, where producers seek tax credits, but also in other countries.

Total market share of the top ten suppliers in each link of the solar photovoltaic industry value chain from 2014 to 2021

Total market share of the top ten suppliers in each link of the solar photovoltaic industry value chain from 2014 to 2021 

Spot prices for polysilicon and wafers remain high, prompting manufacturers to increase both in-house capacity as well as production. The photovoltaic cell and module businesses have consolidated, and the top ten manufacturers have expanded their overall market share. The market share of thin-film modules remained below 4%, with only First Solar continuing to conduct related commercial production. Tariffs and local support policies in India, the United States and the European Union have boosted local module production, but China still contributes 89% of global module production (including Chinese factories in other countries).

2.Europe accounts for more than half of China's total pv exports in April 2022

In April 2022, Europe imported US$2.1 billion worth of Chinese PV products, accounting for 60% of China's total exports. This is the highest monthly import value since records began in 2015. From January to April 2022, Europe accounted for 45% of China's total exports. Assuming a mixed price of $0.27/W for PV products, European imports of PV cells and modules from China are expected to reach 7.9GW in April 2022 alone, compared to a total of 25.3GW in January-April. In comparison, the expected new PV capacity in Europe in 2022 is 33-40GW.

Quarterly exports of Chinese photovoltaic cells and modules

Quarterly exports of Chinese photovoltaic cells and modules

The increase in imports is related to two factors, namely, the long-planned large-scale ground photovoltaic projects, and the accelerated development of the rooftop photovoltaic market segment caused by energy security concerns and high prices. Today, the era of household photovoltaic energy storage has arrived, and "home energy storage + distributed photovoltaic system" has emerged. On May 18, 2022, the European Commission has proposed to increase the EU renewable energy target to 65% of total electricity and 40% of final energy by 2030. Both are up from early 2022 levels (55% and 32%, respectively). If the draft is passed, Europe plans to add 600GW (AC side) – or 780GW (DC side) – of PV modules by 2030.

3.New pv installations to grow by 31% in 2022 and steadily increase to 2030

Europe looks bright for PV module makers such as LONGi and Canadian Solar. German installers say their teams are fully booked for rooftop PV installations by 2023. It is expected that this year's new PV installations will reach 238GW, 31% higher than the 2021 level. That was still 3.1% below the February forecast. The U.S. PV market, already hampered by the escalation of the U.S.-China trade war in April, has cut its forecast for new U.S. installations by 25% to 22.7GW.

New pv installed capacity expected by 2030 (medium scenario)

New pv installed capacity expected by 2030 (medium scenario)

In the meantime, makers of key PV raw material polysilicon such as TONGWEI CO., LTD, DAQO NEW ENERGY and XINTE are building more factories in Leshan City in Sichuan Province, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. In this regard, polysilicon production is expected to increase by 44% in 2022 compared to the previous year. This should ease global bottlenecks and reduce pricing/price pressure on PV module manufacturers and buyers. According to forecasts, the global cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity will reach 4,100GW in 2030. For the world to reach net zero by 2050 as planned, 5,300 GW of PV capacity would be needed in 2030, and the medium-scenario forecast is lower than that.

4.Summary and trend forecast of the global solar pv industry

Judging from the current situation, it is conservatively estimated that the compound growth rate of photovoltaics will be 20% in 5 years. 2022 will be the year of photovoltaic growth, and the development of new technologies will further open up space. Since 2015, the new installed capacity of photovoltaics in the world has grown rapidly, and 133GW of new DC side installed capacity will be added in 2020. The five-year compound growth rate has reached 22%, and it is expected that the newly installed capacity will continue to increase in the future.

It can reach 320GW in 2025, with a 5-year compound growth rate of about 20%. It is expected that in the future, the expansion of global photovoltaic demand will still depend on important markets such as China, India, the United States, and Europe. After understanding the industry information of the solar photovoltaic industry, you can also obtain the latest news about the portable energy storage field from the Top 10 portable power station companies on our website to build a more comprehensive knowledge network.

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