1. World Energy Demand Forecast
The International Energy Agency (hereinafter referred to as IEA) is an economic alliance between the governments of oil-consuming countries. The agency regularly publishes the World Energy Outlook report every year. Suggestions on development challenges and future energy outlook. "World Energy Outlook" is recognized as the most authoritative global energy analysis and forecast analysis report. The report has strong guiding significance for global energy development, and the global energy community pays close attention to it. The outlook of the International Energy Agency in recent years provides a quantitative outlook for the medium-term (2010-2015) and longer-term (2015-2030) energy supply and demand, as well as recommendations for energy security, investment and the environment.
In the "World Energy Outlook 2009" report released by the International Energy Agency, it reviewed and looked forward to the development of the world energy market. The analysis of the report pointed out that affected by the financial crisis and economic recession, the world energy market experienced huge turbulence in the past 2008. In 2009, global energy consumption may have fallen for the first time since 1981. However, the report also emphasized that based on current policies, once the economy begins to recover, energy consumption will soon resume its long-term growth trend. The report predicts that the decline in energy demand in 2009 may be as high as 2%. Affected by this, energy demand will decline slightly between 2007 and 2010, and then demand growth will rebound. The average annual growth rate between 2010 and 2015 will reach 2.5%. With the maturity of economic development and the slowdown of global population growth, after 2015, the pace of growth in global energy demand will gradually slow down.
IEA believes that from 2007 to 2030, global primary energy demand will grow at a rate of 1.5% per year, from 12 billion tons of oil equivalent to 16.8 billion tons of oil equivalent, an overall increase of 40%. This is the case for developing Asian countries. The main driver of demand growth is followed by Middle Eastern countries. The report also pointed out that fossil energy will continue to be the world's leading source of primary energy in the future, and will still account for 80% of the world's primary energy composition. In 2006, urban energy consumption reached 7.9 billion tons of oil equivalent, and fuel accounted for total global energy consumption. The proportion of coal and natural gas is still the largest increase in demand during the forecast period due to the strong growth of energy demand in the power industry. In absolute terms, the demand for coal has grown more than any other fuel, but oil and natural gas will remain the most important fuels in the future.
The report analyzes that global oil demand (except for biofuels) has risen by an average of 1% per year, from 85 million barrels per day in 2007 to 106 million barrels per day in 2030. However, its share of world energy consumption has fallen from 34% to 30%. All predicted growth in world oil demand is mainly due to non-OECD countries (more than 4/5 of the growth comes from China, India and the Middle East), and the oil demand of OECD member countries is slightly The decline was mainly due to the decrease in demand for petroleum in the non-transportation industry. The global demand for natural gas has grown even more rapidly, increasing at a rate of 1.8%, and its share of total energy demand has risen slightly to 22%. Most of the growth in natural gas consumption comes from the power generation industry. The world's coal demand grows by an average of 2% per year, and its share of global energy demand has risen from 26% in 2006 to 29% in 2030. Among them, 85% of the increase in global coal consumption is mainly from the power industries of China and India. During the forecast period of the "Outlook", the proportion of nuclear power in primary energy demand has declined slightly, from the current 6% to 5% in 2030 (the proportion of its power generation has dropped from 15% to 10%), which is in line with ours. It is not expected that the government’s practice of changing its policies will be consistent in this scenario, although recent interest in nuclear power has shown signs of recovery. Nevertheless, with the exception of OECD Europe, nuclear power generation in major regions of the world will increase in absolute terms.
The report pointed out that as of the end of October 2009, the world energy market supply and demand situation has undergone major changes. The possibility of energy embargoes or voluntary cut-off of energy supply in energy exporting countries has been greatly reduced. At the same time, the impact of high energy prices on the world economy has been significantly weakened. Compared with the energy crises that have occurred in history, great changes have taken place. However, the uneven distribution of energy supply and demand has further intensified, climate change and energy environmental issues have become increasingly prominent, the situation has become increasingly severe, energy geopolitics and energy conflicts still exist, and energy security issues may become more and more complex.
From the perspective of energy consumption, energy growth will mainly shift to the Asia-Pacific region. At present, the Asia-Pacific region has surpassed Europe and the United States to become the world's largest energy consumer and the largest oil consumer. In terms of energy supply, the world's dependence on OPEC will tend to increase, and the supply capacity of Central Asia will gradually increase. At present, many institutions predict world oil production in the next 20 years, and it is generally believed that OPEC's production share will rise to about 50%.
Due to the continued strong economic growth of China and India, between 2006 and 2030, their primary energy demand growth will account for more than half of the world's total primary energy demand growth. The Middle East countries accounted for 11% of global growth, strengthening their position as an important center of energy demand. In total, Non-OECD countries accounted for 87% of the total increase. As a result, their share of world primary energy demand rose from 51% to 62%, and their energy consumption exceeded that of OECD member countries in 2005.
(1) Global natural gas will usher in excess pressure
In the long run, global demand for natural gas will show an upward trend, although this increase will vary with changes in global climate policies and changes in economic growth rates. It is estimated that global natural gas demand will rise by 41% from 3 trillion cubic meters in 2007 to 4.3 trillion cubic feet in 2030. And 80% of this increase is due to demand from non-OECD countries, especially the Middle East. Among all industries, the power sector is still the main factor driving the increase in natural gas demand; from 2007 to 2030, the annual growth of global natural gas demand will reach 0.7%, and the total global proven natural gas reserves by the end of 2008 will exceed 180 trillion cubic meters. Most of these reserves are in 3 countries: Russia, Iran and Qatar; it is estimated that the remaining recoverable natural gas resources will be even greater.
Although the cost of developing new natural gas will rise in the long run, the global natural gas reserves are sufficient to meet all the needs until 2030. Global recoverable natural gas reserves are estimated to exceed 850 trillion cubic meters, of which 45% come from unconventional natural gas. From a forecast point of view, non-OECD countries will become the main factor in the increase in global natural gas demand. As the world's largest natural gas storage site and the region with the lowest production cost-the Middle East's natural gas production and export volume will increase significantly. According to the report, the proportion of unconventional natural gas in the world will increase from 12% in 2007 to 15% in 2030. However, there are still uncertainties in this forecast, especially after 2020, because natural gas production may also rise further on this basis.
In the past three years, the sharp increase in unconventional natural gas production in the United States and Canada has also changed the outlook of the global natural gas market. But people still don't know whether other regions with unconventional natural gas can follow the same pattern and usher in great development. The unexpectedly high production of unconventional natural gas in North America and the severe blow to demand from the economic crisis may result in a severe oversupply of natural gas in the next few years. With the commissioning of new natural gas projects, the total capacity of natural gas pipeline use and LNG liquefaction capacity in major regions around the world is expected to rise from 60 billion cubic meters in 2007 to 200 billion cubic meters in 2015. Natural gas suppliers in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region will also face increasing pressure to stimulate demand through price cuts.
(2) The economic crisis suspends global demand for fossil fuels
Due to the impact of the global economic crisis, global energy demand is destined to decline in 2009, which is also the first decline since 1981. However, based on the current energy policies of various countries, once the economy accelerates recovery, the long-term energy demand will also rebound rapidly. The 2009 World Energy Outlook report predicts that the global primary energy demand will increase by 1.5% annually from 2007 to 2030, that is, from 12 billion tons of crude oil demand to 16.9 billion tons-the total increase will reach 40%. Major developing countries in Asia will be the main driver of this increase, followed by the Middle East.
According to the report, the growth in global energy demand is expected to slow down compared to 2008, which also reflects the expected impact of the economic crisis on the energy market, and it is also a reflection of the implementation of new energy policies by various countries in 2008. Overall, due to the steep drop in global energy demand this year, energy demand from 2007 to 2010 showed a downward trend. However, with the maturity of global emerging economies and the slowdown of global population growth, it is estimated that between 2010 and 2015, the annual growth rate of global energy demand will be about 2.5%. After 2015, global demand will gradually decline.
According to the forecast of the IEA, fossil fuels are still the main source of global energy consumption. From 2007 to 2030, more than 3/4 of global energy consumption will come from fossil fuels. In absolute terms, coal will become the energy commodity with the fastest growing demand, followed by natural gas and oil within expectations. IEA said that with the application of clean coal technology, the proportion of coal in primary energy will increase, and its consumption will increase from 3.2 billion tons of oil equivalent in 2007 to 4.9 billion tons of oil equivalent, with an average annual growth rate of 1.9%. , Not only higher than traditional fossil energy such as oil and gas, but also higher than nuclear energy, biological energy and other energies, and only lower than the emerging renewable energy led by wind energy.
By 2030, oil will remain the largest primary fuel consumer, although the proportion of its total energy consumption in ancient times will drop from the current 34% to 30%. Within the expected range, global crude oil demand will increase by an average of 1% per year, from 85 million barrels per day in 2008 to 105 million barrels in 2030. The increase is mainly due to the demand of non-OECD countries, and the demand for crude oil from OECD countries will fall as expected. Among them, the transportation industry is the industry that directly causes the demand for crude oil to rise, accounting for 97%. Since the output of non-OPEC oil-producing countries will reach its peak in 2010, after which crude oil production will mainly rely on OPEC countries, OPEC has a large amount of conventional oil resources.
The continuous demand for energy in the power system is the driving force leading to the increase in demand for coal and natural gas. It is estimated that by 2030, the annual growth rate of global electricity demand will reach 2.5%, which will be mainly reflected in non-OECD countries. From a global perspective, by 2030, in addition to the power sector, the demand for other sectors will reach 4.8 million megawatts-which is almost five times the current generation of electricity in the United States. Coal is still the main energy pillar of the power sector. By 2030, its consumption in this industry will increase by 3% to 44%. The output of nuclear power generation will increase in all regions of Europe, but the proportion of global nuclear power generation will decrease.
In the report, the proportion of non-hydro renewable energy power generation (including wind energy, solar energy, geothermal energy, lake energy and biomass) will increase rapidly. The main growth in the power generation industry is: the proportion of non-hydro renewable energy power generation in the total power generation will increase from 2.5% to 8.6% in 2030. The absolute value-added of wind energy will be the largest, and the consumption of biofuels in the transportation industry will also increase. Strong growth. At the same time, hydroelectric power generation will decrease by 15% to 14% on the contrary.
(3) Southeast Asia will become a major energy market
In the next 20 years, the status of the 10 ASEAN countries in the global energy market will become more and more important. Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam will become the most dynamic regions in the global economy. The economic strength of ASEAN is equivalent to that of Canada and Mexico; in 2008, ASEAN’s GDP was approaching 2.8 trillion Dollar, its population exceeds that of the European Union. ASEAN’s energy consumption is already comparable to that of the Middle East, and it is destined to continue to rise rapidly, because the current per capita energy consumption of ASEAN countries is relatively low. With economic growth, population growth, and continued urbanization and industrialization, ASEAN will become the main energy consumption. area.
The report predicts that between 2007 and 2030, ASEAN primary energy demand will rise by 76%-which is much faster than the average increase in other countries in the world. Due to the current economic weakness, energy demand in the region will increase relatively smoothly in the short term before its rapid growth. In addition, China and India will also play important roles in the global energy market; the report pointed out that if government policies remain unchanged, India’s oil demand may increase by 3.9% annually before 2030, and during this period, China’s demand will increase annually. The rate is expected to be 3.5%. Before 2030, China’s daily demand for crude oil will double to 16.3 million barrels on the basis of 7.7 million barrels in 2008, while India’s daily demand for crude oil is expected to rise from 3 million barrels in 2008. Barrels increased to 6.9 million barrels in 2030. These trends all reflect the need for global energy to refocus on the Asian market.
If Southeast Asian countries want to meet their growing demand at affordable energy prices, then the region still needs to overcome some difficulties. Since the financial crisis in 1997, the energy industry in many parts of Southeast Asia has only tried to catch up with the fast-growing demand. Since the proven oil reserves in Southeast Asia account for only about 1% of the world's total, oil consumption in this region is heavily dependent on imports, and this dependence will become more apparent in the future. Although the region's current power generation industry mainly relies on coal, the region is also likely to experience a shortage of natural gas supply in the next 10 years. Although some countries in the region have relatively abundant renewable energy sources, due to various practical and economic constraints, most of the renewable energy sources have not been developed.
(4) The world energy system may face major changes
IEA believes that low-carbon energy technologies will continue to emerge and develop rapidly, and the world will form a cleaner, more flexible and more competitive energy pattern. It is expected that in 2030, the total emissions of major emitters will be greatly reduced due to restrictions and will affect the energy system. Driven by the global climate change policy, the world energy system is facing two major challenges: to achieve a rapid transition to a low-carbon, efficient, and environmentally friendly energy supply system; and to ensure a reliable and cheap energy supply.
In order to prevent catastrophic and irreversible damage to the global climate, it is ultimately necessary to decarbonize energy to optimize the energy system, find and use more natural gas resources, and vigorously develop clean and renewable energy will be the basic direction for optimizing the energy system. During the forecast period, the growth rate of non-hydropower renewable energy such as wind, solar, geothermal, tidal and wave energy will be 7.2%, exceeding the average annual growth rate of other energy sources. The cost of renewable energy will decrease with the mature application of technology. Driven by the rapid development of technology, renewable energy will surpass natural gas to become the second largest energy source for power generation after coal shortly after 2010.
The development of modern renewable energy technology will be extremely rapid. The cost of renewable energy decreases with the mature application of technology. Assuming that the price of fossil fuels and strong policy support provide an opportunity for the renewable energy industry to get rid of the dependence on subsidies, and promote emerging technologies into the mainstream . The IEA predicts that the growth rate of non-hydropower renewable energy (except biomass) such as wind, solar, geothermal, tidal and wave energy is 7.2%, exceeding the global average annual growth rate of any other energy. The use of renewable energy in the power industry accounted for most of the growth. The proportion of non-hydropower renewable energy in total power generation has increased from 1% in 2006 to 4% in 2030. Despite the increase in hydropower production, its share of electricity fell by two percentage points to 14%. The growth of renewable energy power generation in OECD countries exceeds the combined growth of fossil fuel and nuclear power generation.
By 2030, the world energy landscape will undergo earth-shaking changes, and the world energy system will undergo major changes. China, India, the Middle East and other non-OECD regions will have an increasing share of energy markets and carbon dioxide emissions, and low-carbon energy technologies will continue to emerge and develop rapidly. The prices of oil and natural gas will continue to rise, and the world will form a cleaner, more flexible and more competitive energy pattern. Ensuring global energy supply and accelerating the transition to a low-carbon energy system requires strong measures and investment by national and local policies. International coordination mechanisms will play an important role in building a sustainable energy system.
2. China's energy demand forecast
As the largest developing country in the world, China is a major energy producer and consumer. Energy production is second only to the United States and Russia, ranking third in the world; basic energy consumption accounts for 1/10 of the world's total consumption, second only to the United States, ranking second in the world. Since entering the 21st century, China has been one of the countries with the fastest growth in energy consumption. According to comprehensive forecasts, by 2012, China's primary energy consumption will surpass the United States and become the world's largest energy consumer.
Since the 1990s, the sustained and rapid development of the Chinese economy has led to a sharp increase in energy consumption. Since 1993, China has changed from a net energy exporter to a net importer. The total energy consumption has exceeded the total supply, and the degree of external dependence on energy demand has rapidly increased. The rapid growth of energy consumption has created a broad development space for the world energy market. China has become an indispensable part of the world energy market and is playing an increasingly important and active role in maintaining global energy security. However, energy sources such as coal, electricity, oil, and natural gas all have gaps in China. Among them, the huge increase in oil demand and the structural contradictions caused by it have increasingly become the biggest problems facing China's energy security. Therefore, the development of clean and renewable energy has become an urgent issue.
China’s primary energy consumption in 2000 was 750 million tons of oil equivalent. Based on the fact that the total economic volume in 2020 will be quadrupled from 2000, the moderate growth will be maintained in 2030, and the population will reach 1.47 billion in 2030, taking into account per capita GDP and infrastructure completeness. , The level of social wealth accumulation and other social development scenarios, and strengthen conditions such as energy conservation and technological progress. Researchers predict that China’s primary energy demand will reach 3.4 billion tons and 4.1 billion tons of oil equivalent in 2020 and 2030, respectively.
However, the current per capita primary energy consumption in China is less than 1/18 of that of the United States, and only 1/3 of the world average. Unlike the world’s primary energy composition, China is dominated by coal, which accounts for 63.6% of primary energy. , Due to the difficulty of efficient and clean utilization of coal, it has brought serious pollution to the living environment of human beings during its use. On the other hand, China's per capita energy resources are seriously insufficient. Per capita oil reserves are less than 1/10 of the world average, and per capita coal reserves are only 1/2 of the world average.
China is rich in coal resources, with a prospective reserve of more than 5 trillion tons and a proven resource of 1.2 trillion tons, ranking third in the world after Russia and the United States. Among China's proven reserves of primary energy resources, coal accounted for 94%, oil and natural gas accounted for 5.4% and 0.6% respectively. Coal has always accounted for more than two-thirds of China's primary energy production and consumption structure.
In the next 20 years, even if non-fossil fuel power generation is vigorously developed, coal will still be the dominant energy source for power generation, and the proportion of coal in China's primary energy structure will not drop too fast. Therefore, fossil fuel power generation based on coal power will still be the main power supply method in China in the future, but with different incentive policies, China’s power supply structure can also be diversified, such as hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and other non-fossil fuel power generation By 2020, the proportion will reach about 30% of the total power generation at that time. China uses 1.48 billion tons of coal for power generation and heating. Under the intensified policy, coal used for power generation and heating still reaches 1.07 billion tons, accounting for more than half of the total coal demand. It can be seen that the coal demand in the processing and conversion sector will become The main source of growth for China's coal demand in the future. From the perspective of coal consumption demand in the future, according to the prediction of relevant agencies, by 2020, China's coal consumption will still account for about 55% of total primary energy consumption, and the total consumption will reach about 3.8 billion tons; by 2050, the proportion of coal consumption will be It will also account for about 50%, and the total coal demand will continue to grow moderately in the future.
Although China is actively developing a low-carbon economy and a circular economy, developing and promoting climate-friendly technologies, the proportion of coal in the primary energy structure will gradually decline, but the reliability of coal resources, low prices, and cleanability of combustion, etc. It determines the basic position and role of the coal industry in national economic and social development, and it will be long-term and stable. China's coal-based energy resources determine that it is difficult to change the coal-based energy structure for a long period of time in the future. In this way, the contradiction between China's economic development and environmental pollution will be more prominent. In recent years, the issue of energy security has increasingly become the focus of national life and even the whole society, and has increasingly become a hidden danger to China’s strategic security and a bottleneck restricting the sustainable development of the economy and society.
Renewable energy has become an important choice for countries to implement sustainable development. Renewable energy is favored by developed countries because it is clean, pollution-free, renewable, and meets the requirements of sustainable development. Premier Wen Jiabao said at the 2010 Summer Davos Forum in Tianjin, “In response to the continuous expansion of energy demand, the most important thing is to adjust the economic structure and develop products that are both energy-saving and environmentally friendly, as well as innovative and high-value-added products. Companies and economies are embarking on a path of sustainable development." With the great attention of the government, China's new energy industry has entered the fast lane and has achieved unprecedented success. For China, vigorously developing and utilizing renewable energy will be one of the important strategic measures to optimize the energy structure, improve the environment, and promote sustainable economic and social development. At the beginning of 2006, the Chinese government has announced a new energy policy. According to this policy, China will increase the use of wind, solar and nuclear energy and other new and renewable energy sources in the future.