In recent years, with the increasing energy crisis and people’s awareness of environmental protection, the global solar photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly. The "2009-2012 China Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation Industry Investment Analysis and Prospect Forecast Report" shows that in 2007, the global solar new installed capacity reached 2826MWp, of which Germany accounted for about 47%, Spain accounted for about 23%, Japan accounted for about 8%, and the United States accounted for about 8%. Accounted for 8%. In 2008, the global solar newly installed capacity reached more than 5500MWp. Among them, according to the regional ranking, Spain ranked first and Germany second. In 2008, the total global solar installations totaled 15 cw, and Spain’s new installations amounted to 2.5 GW, which accounted for about half of the new installations in 2008.
So, which regions have huge potential for the development of photovoltaic industry? Where should the global photovoltaic industry focus?
1. China's photovoltaic industry has attracted the attention of the world
China is very rich in solar energy resources. China's photovoltaic power generation industry started in the 1970s and entered a period of steady development in the mid-1990s. The output of solar cells and modules has steadily increased year by year. After more than 30 years of hard work, it has ushered in a new stage of rapid development. By the end of 2007, there were more than 50 companies engaged in solar cell production in China, the production capacity of solar cells reached 2.9 million kilowatts (2900MW), and the annual output of solar cells reached 1188Mw, surpassing Japan and Europe. However, the installation volume of photovoltaic systems corresponding to large photovoltaic production countries is basically negligible. In 2008, China's photovoltaic cell production reached 1.78Gw, accounting for 26% of the global total. From the perspective of market share, the market share of Chinese solar cell manufacturers (including Taiwan Province) has been increasing year by year. In 2007, the market share of Chinese solar cell manufacturers increased from 20% in 2006 to 35%. In 2008, it went even further. Increased to 44%, ranking first in the world for two consecutive years. But in 2008, China's photovoltaic system installations amounted to 40MW, accounting for only 0.73% of the world's total installations.
It can be clearly seen from the above data that as of the end of 2008, China's photovoltaic system installation is still at a very small stage. There are only a few photovoltaic power generation projects in China, including Inner Mongolia Ordos (205 kW) and Shanghai Chongming Island (1MW). The projects are also demonstration projects approved by the National Development and Reform Commission, which means that China's photovoltaic market has not really opened up on a large scale.
On March 23, 2009, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of China issued the "Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the Application of Solar Photovoltaic Buildings" and the "Interim Measures for the Management of Financial Subsidy Funds for the Application of Solar Photovoltaic Buildings". A subsidy of up to RMB 20 per watt will be provided for some photovoltaic buildings. In addition, the upcoming new energy development plan indicates that China's photovoltaic market is about to open.
The Photovoltaic New Deal is accompanied by the launch of China's photovoltaic power plant projects. In addition, the most important point is that China's photovoltaic market has become the focus of world attention. Xiangshui County, Jiangsu signed a solar photovoltaic industry base project agreement with the US New Energy Technology Company. Zhejiang Wenzhou Dazhan International Trade Co., Ltd. "joins hands" with Saudi Arabia's Bagshan Group. Bashan will use capital to invest in a solar energy project in Wenzhou with a total investment of 530 million yuan. Under the strong policy guidance of the Chinese government, China's photovoltaic industry not only allows Chinese companies to see opportunities, but China's solar photovoltaic industry has attracted the attention of the world.
China has broad prospects for solar energy applications, mainly solar thermal energy and solar photovoltaic energy. Solar thermal applications such as: power generation, hot water, drying, air conditioning, greenhouses, etc. Solar photovoltaic energy applications such as: power generation, batteries, electric vehicles, etc. The solar water heater is currently the only commercialized solar energy technology application product.
①Prospects for solar thermal energy
After years of hard work, with the rapid development of China's solar energy market, gratifying progress has been made in the utilization of solar thermal energy. Solar water heaters have been used in homes, apartments, hotels, shopping malls, agriculture, forestry and other fields. With the gradual improvement of products, the increase of public awareness of civilization, and the development of potential rural markets with a population of 900 million, there will be a period of substantial growth in the application of solar water heaters. In the near future, there will be a relationship with home appliances such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs. The same scale market as the product.
China has become the world’s largest producer and user of solar water heaters, with a cumulative use area of more than 90 million square meters, and it is still increasing at an annual rate of 20% to 30%. China’s solar water heater output has accounted for the world’s total output. 76% of the total. According to estimates, after the country has fully promoted the use of solar heat, only considering solar water heaters, the country will have a total market demand of more than 1,000 billion yuan in the next ten years, which contains huge potential.
②The prospect of solar photovoltaic
Solar photovoltaic power generation is a relatively mature technology at present. It is safe and reliable, noise-free, pollution-free, energy available everywhere, no geographical restrictions, no fuel consumption, short construction period, no need to erect transmission lines, and can be easily connected to buildings. Combination and other advantages are beyond the reach of conventional power generation and other power generation methods. The annual output of solar cells in China has been around 1% of the global output for a long time before 2002. Since 2004, driven by the strong demand of the international photovoltaic market, especially the German and Japanese markets, China’s photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly, reaching the world’s total in 2006. The share is more than 10%, second only to Japan and Europe, ranking third in the world. It is estimated that China's output of photovoltaic power generation products will exceed 1,000 megawatts in 2010.
Although the Chinese solar energy market has gone through more than ten years, the huge market prospects are coming to us with great waves. Conservatively predict the boundless glory of the future in 7-10 years. In terms of regions, the markets of Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, and Yunnan may enter a mature period, but they still have huge potential. The development of real estate industry, rural township markets, etc., are new big growth points.
Other provinces such as Henan, Zhejiang, Hubei, Hebei, and Jiangxi are only in the growth stage, and the market has just begun.
2. Emerging markets will become the main driving force of the European photovoltaic industry
In 2008, the global import volume of solar cells reached more than 5.5GW, of which more than 80% of the new import volume was located in Europe. The representative countries are Germany and Spain. In 2008, the newly imported solar cells of these two countries reached 2511MW and 1500MW respectively, accounting for 84% of the total in Europe. The policy changes of the two traditional photovoltaic powers will deal a heavy blow to the European and even the global photovoltaic market. However, it is gratifying that the rapid rise of emerging markets will fill the gap left by traditional photovoltaic powers. The first is Italy. With the recent introduction of an attractive photovoltaic subsidy policy by the government of this country and the continuous decline in the price of photovoltaic modules, many investors have discovered business opportunities, which has promoted the rapid expansion of the Italian market. The latest news is that Trina Solar, a Chinese photovoltaic manufacturer, has provided 4.7MW of photovoltaic power generation facilities to ErgyCapital in Italy. Italy is very likely to become the world's second largest photovoltaic market in 2010.
The latest forecast by market research company iSuppli shows that by 2013, the installed capacity of solar systems in the Czech Republic may reach 500MW, compared to only 50MW in 2008, with a compound annual growth rate of 66.5%. From the perspective of operating income, in 2013, the country’s photovoltaic industry will grow from US$300 million in 2008 to US$1.7 billion. Bulgaria's solar installed capacity will also reach 600Mw by 2013, compared to 1Mw in 2008, with a compound annual growth rate of 89%. In addition, by 2013, the photovoltaic system installed in Greece will reach 1.2GW, while in 2008 it was only 40Mw, during which the compound annual growth rate was 88.5%.
3. The Middle East will become a new continent for the global photovoltaic industry
Throughout the development history of the global solar photovoltaic industry, there was first a dominance in Japan, then a strong rise in Europe, and now emerging markets such as China and the United States are extremely optimistic. However, due to the abundant oil and gas resources in the Middle East, it does not seem to be optimistic about the development of photovoltaics. But now, with the rise of a new round of new energy investment in the world, rich Arabs in the Middle East not only see the importance of looking for alternative energy sources, but also see the huge business opportunities contained in the photovoltaic industry. It is this transformation that will promote the Middle East to become a new continent for the global photovoltaic industry. In fact, not only the concept is changing, but the Arabs have put the theory into practice. At the end of May 2009, the Middle East’s first 10-megawatt solar park in Masdar City, Abu Dhabi, UAE, was connected to Abu Dhabi’s power grid and used solar power to end the city’s zero waste and zero carbon surplus Construction during the project period.
4. North Africa is the main battlefield for the future solar energy contention
The deserts of North Africa are very rich in solar energy resources. According to data provided by the European Commission’s Energy Research Institute, as long as 0.3% of the solar energy in the Sahara Desert and the Central-Eastern Africa desert can be used, it is sufficient to meet the energy needs of the entire Europe. This area will also become the focus of the future solar energy battle. Although the development of the global photovoltaic industry is currently restricted by many factors, since 2009, the relevant policies of countries around the world have given the photovoltaic industry great confidence. I believe that after a period of rapid development and the saturation of the Chinese market, it may become the norm for powerful companies to go abroad and to enclose overseas.
5. The field of solar technology development
With the rapid progress of science and technology, mankind's ability to extract traditional energy sources such as oil and coal has rapidly increased. At the same time, the development of human society has an increasing demand for these energy sources. With the strong support of the policies of various countries in the world, the rise of the new energy industry has become an industrial revolution leading the world economy out of the trough, and the development space of related industries is extremely broad. With unprecedented policy support in the solar field, the industry has unlimited prospects. From the perspective of application, solar energy technology will be vigorously developed in the following areas:
First, the field of communications. For example, microwave relay station, optical cable communication station, satellite ground station, TV transponder station, etc.
Second, applications in remote areas without electricity. For example, centralized power stations, various household power generation systems, water pumping systems, and outdoor power supply systems.
Third, applications in the petroleum transportation industry. For example, cathodic protection of oil and gas pipelines, road classes, traffic signal indicators, marine navigation lights, etc.
Fourth, field monitoring applications. Such as weather and earthquake monitoring, forest fire prevention, hydrological monitoring, etc.
Fifth, urban applications. Integrate with buildings and grids, various lamps, advertising signs, various lighting projects, etc.
Sixth, the military field. Small mobile power stations, aerospace satellites, border guard posts, etc. Applications in other fields, including various handicraft toys, calculators, watches, cruise ships, chargers, etc.
Based on the above analysis, there are plenty of reasons to believe that the huge market space, excellent structural performance, good price-performance ratio, technically mature equipment support, unprecedented government support, and the market peak period of the solar energy industry is bound to come. The use will also continue to expand.